Monday, October 18, 2004
2004-05 ACC Conference Preview
Who's gonna win the ACC this year?
Your guess is as good as mine John
Every columnist this time of year tries to predict how all the teams will finish. One thing is for sure, the conference is ridiculously tough. The incomparable Dickie V. has seven ACC schools in the Top 30.
The job is difficult, and no one ever gets it right, but I am going to throw my hat into an already overcrowded ring. My season predictions have a slight twist though. I have broken the ACC into three divisions. Each division is named after a former Terp small forward. The reason is that Maryland small forwards over the years seem to have been cut from the same cloth. Exree Hipp begat Laron Profit who begat Terence Morris. Each version is slightly better than the previous incarnation, but still with many faults (much like my predictions). So without further adieu:
Exree Hipp Division
11. Virginia Tech (Prediction: 3-13)
Frankly, it’s an embarrassment that this team is in the ACC. I’m filing it under things that never happened. I think if we all close our eyes and think really hard, we can convince ourselves that they are not in the ACC. This year Maryland has two games against this “team”. Hopefully, with the rotating schedule, the Terps will only be playing them once a year. Just think of it as a non-conference game. Trust me it will make you feel better. I am not even going to break down their roster because frankly, I don’t know any of them and they are all pretty bad.
10. University of Miami (Prediction 3-13)
Miami was 4-12 in the Big East last year. Now the Big East is a quality conference, so that record doesn’t mean they are garbage, but if it wasn’t for the Hokies, they might not win a game this year. I’m giving them three wins just because some teams may spend too much time clubbing in Miami Beach before a game and not show up. Here’s an interesting fact: Miami doesn’t have one player on their team from the state of Florida. I know they all play football down there, but come on. How on Earth can you build a program when you can’t even recruit in your own state? This season will be ugly.
9. Clemson (Prediction 4-12)
The 8-9 play-in game in the ACC Tournament has officially been renamed the Larry Schyatt Memorial game. This is one sorry program. They haven’t had a good team since Elden Campbell and Dale Davis suited up for the Tigers. Well, the hits just keep on coming. Clemson will suit up six freshman this year. Does anyone remember when Gary started all of those freshman in ‘92-93? We finished 2-14 that year. Have fun Tiger fans, you really have a program to be proud of.
Laron Profit Division
8. Virginia (Prediction 6-10)
Virginia returns their top two scorers from last year’s squad, Elton Brown and Devin Smith. I guess this means they should be improved from last year. I wouldn’t bet on it. They are probably a pretty good team, but this league is just too tough and the Cavaliers just don’t have enough horses. Cavaliers. No horses. Get it? Hey people, I’m working over here.
7. Florida State (Prediction 7-9)
Tim Pickett is gone. That guy was a beast. I didn’t watch the NBA draft, but I assume he went somewhere. Anyone know? Let’s break it down:
Backcourt: Von Wafer showed some flashes last year. He is the team leader. Florida State has three freshman coming in and they are all under 6’3”.
Frontcourt: Alexander Johnson is big and long and can block some shots, and he will make teams work down low to get open. His offensive is limited.
Intangibles: This team has no history of winning in this conference (save for the Sam Cassell years). This year will be no different. The team just did not improve enough in the offseason. Without Pickett, I can’t see them finishing .500 in this conference.
6. NC State (Prediction 9-7)
Frontcourt: The Wolfpack will really miss Marcus Melvin. He was the team’s most reliable three point threat and he could draw away the opposing team’s best interior defender away from the post, so Julius Hodge could go to the rack. They will not be able to replace Melvin’s shooting. Hodge can’t hit the three and it could become their Achilles heal.
Backcourt: Scooter Sherrill ran this team last year and they sputtered when he was out. They will really miss him especially since the upper-division is loaded with point guards. Hodge is the best player returning to the conference, and I think he will keep the Pack competitive.
Intangibles: This team just has away of falling apart in a horrible way during close games. They are like the Terps from the mid 90’s. They have talent, but they just don’t know how to win the big games. I’m also not convinced that Sendek is a good coach.
Terence Morris Division- The upper division of the ACC is ridiculously tough. Any of these teams (except Duke) could win the National Championship. Other than Duke finishing fifth, I have ranked these teams in no particular order. Frankly, I’m just guessing.
5. Duke (Prediction 10-6)
Backcourt: J.J. Redick is the best shooter in the NCAA. He probably would have led the USA Basketball team to the gold medal if he had been on the team. He is an absolute force and I hate him. Daniel Ewing is a natural shooting guard who plays small forward because of Redick. Now, lets take a look at the point guard position. Going into last season, Coach KryBaby had Shaun Livingston penciled in to replace Chris Duhon. Since Livingston left for the NBA, Coach K is forced to turn to Sean Dockery to lead the team. The two newcomers are both under 6’6”, (DaMarcus Nelson and David McClure) but neither can play the point. If you look at the rest of this conference, Duke will have some serious deficiencies at PG. I don’t think you can win in this conference without that. That being said, they are the Blue Devils and unfortunately, you can’t rule out Coach KryBaby.
Frontcourt: Shelden Williams can block some shots, but I think he has limited offensive skills. Shavlik Randolph isn’t scaring anyone. The Blue Devils will really miss Luol Deng.
Intangibles: If this team were any other team in the conference, people would not be picking them to finish in the upper half of the division. They have no bench at all, unless these freshman turn out to be good, but you can’t bet against KryBaby. He will have them ready. The only difference is that this year, they won’t have the best talent on the floor in nearly half their conference games.
4. North Carolina (Prediction 11-5)
Frontcourt: May is a question mark until he can prove that he can remain healthy for an entire season. If he can remain healthy, then watch out. He is a load down low and it will be a challenge for teams to keep him off the boards. Jawad Williams and Jackie Manuel are both overrated. Manuel in particular may be the worst starter in the ACC. What does he bring to the table other than an occasional steal? The big addition is Marvin Williams, the 6-9 forward was predicted to be a first rounder in the NBA draft, but he went to Chapel Hill instead. On a team as crowded as this, I wonder if he will regret that decision.
Backcourt: In a guard heavy conference, the Tarheels have two of the best, but I’m not convinced that these guys have the heart to take it to the next level. I think Felton often got outplayed in conference games last year, and McCants makes Vince Carter look tough. Bump this guy once when he is driving to the basket and he settles for threes the rest of the way.
Intangibles: OK, here’s my thing with Roy Williams. Name me one occasion in all of his years at Kansas when he did not have the most talent or second most talent in the Big 12? Don’t get me wrong; the Tarheels have tons of talent. It’s just that there are five other schools in the ACC with as much talent as Carolina. This means that the Tarheels will have to rely on the coaching of Roy Williams. I can’t recall Coach Roy ever out-coaching his opponent. I think last year confirmed that without talent head and shoulders above the competition, he is an average coach. If Williams can’t provide necessary leadership, than they are in deep trouble because it certainly won’t come from any of the players. Let’s talk about team leaders. Carolina must rely on the leadership of….Rashad McCants? The guy has tons of talent, but I just don’t see him setting an example for the rest of the team. I wouldn’t switch him for Gilchrist, that’s for sure.
3. Maryland (Prediction 11-5) Gary did a great job with the schedule this year. Just when the ACC becomes the toughest it’s been in 10 years, Gary has his easiest non-conference schedule in a decade. Could be luck, but when in doubt, I’m siding with the old Coach. If you want my full Terrapin preview, Check out my previous two postings below.
2. Georgia Tech (Prediction 12-4)
Backcourt: Jarret Jack and BJ Elder are as good as any tandem in the country. Will Bynum is a solid backup PG.
Frontcourt: Tech lost two starters off of last year’s squad to graduation: Marvin Lewis and Clarence Moore. Those forwards will be replaced by the electrifying Isma’il Muhammad and most likely freshman Ra’Sean Dickey. Luke Schenscher has the potential to be dominant at times. I know that sounds crazy but the guy is tough to match up against.
Intangibles: Tech made it to the Final Four last year and with most of the nucleus returning, it’s hard to pick against them this year. Schenscher, Elder, and Jack are special players. I don’t really have much else to say about the Yellowjackets, they are just good and Paul Hewitt can coach.
1. Wake Forest (Prediction 12-4)
Backcourt: The Demon Deacons didn’t lose anyone last year. Chris Paul might be the best point guard in the country. Justin Gray is a sharpshooter. The guards are a little undersized but a seasoned group. These two will not get outplayed all season.
Frontcourt: Jamal Levy can block shots and score in the paint, but he is thin. Guys like Sean May at UNC should be able to push him around a little. Vytas Danelius might be Darius Songalia, except that he whines like a little bitch. I think they are the same person otherwise. Seriously.
Intangibles: Wake Forest did not lose one significant player from last year’s team. This is the best Wake Forest team since Tim Duncan and Randolph Childress won the ACC Tournament. They could make it to the Final Four this year, but then again, so could four other teams in this conference. If Maryland can’t win it all this year, I’d rather it be the Deacs or Tech than Duke or Carolina.
Final Analysis
It is not out of the question that the ACC will send four teams to the Final Four. I know that sounds ridiculous, but it is plausible. Kentucky, Kansas, Connecticut, and Michigan State will challenge for National Championship as well. Besides that the ACC will rule the roost.
The job is difficult, and no one ever gets it right, but I am going to throw my hat into an already overcrowded ring. My season predictions have a slight twist though. I have broken the ACC into three divisions. Each division is named after a former Terp small forward. The reason is that Maryland small forwards over the years seem to have been cut from the same cloth. Exree Hipp begat Laron Profit who begat Terence Morris. Each version is slightly better than the previous incarnation, but still with many faults (much like my predictions). So without further adieu:
Exree Hipp Division
11. Virginia Tech (Prediction: 3-13)
Frankly, it’s an embarrassment that this team is in the ACC. I’m filing it under things that never happened. I think if we all close our eyes and think really hard, we can convince ourselves that they are not in the ACC. This year Maryland has two games against this “team”. Hopefully, with the rotating schedule, the Terps will only be playing them once a year. Just think of it as a non-conference game. Trust me it will make you feel better. I am not even going to break down their roster because frankly, I don’t know any of them and they are all pretty bad.
10. University of Miami (Prediction 3-13)
Miami was 4-12 in the Big East last year. Now the Big East is a quality conference, so that record doesn’t mean they are garbage, but if it wasn’t for the Hokies, they might not win a game this year. I’m giving them three wins just because some teams may spend too much time clubbing in Miami Beach before a game and not show up. Here’s an interesting fact: Miami doesn’t have one player on their team from the state of Florida. I know they all play football down there, but come on. How on Earth can you build a program when you can’t even recruit in your own state? This season will be ugly.
9. Clemson (Prediction 4-12)
The 8-9 play-in game in the ACC Tournament has officially been renamed the Larry Schyatt Memorial game. This is one sorry program. They haven’t had a good team since Elden Campbell and Dale Davis suited up for the Tigers. Well, the hits just keep on coming. Clemson will suit up six freshman this year. Does anyone remember when Gary started all of those freshman in ‘92-93? We finished 2-14 that year. Have fun Tiger fans, you really have a program to be proud of.
Laron Profit Division
8. Virginia (Prediction 6-10)
Virginia returns their top two scorers from last year’s squad, Elton Brown and Devin Smith. I guess this means they should be improved from last year. I wouldn’t bet on it. They are probably a pretty good team, but this league is just too tough and the Cavaliers just don’t have enough horses. Cavaliers. No horses. Get it? Hey people, I’m working over here.
7. Florida State (Prediction 7-9)
Tim Pickett is gone. That guy was a beast. I didn’t watch the NBA draft, but I assume he went somewhere. Anyone know? Let’s break it down:
Backcourt: Von Wafer showed some flashes last year. He is the team leader. Florida State has three freshman coming in and they are all under 6’3”.
Frontcourt: Alexander Johnson is big and long and can block some shots, and he will make teams work down low to get open. His offensive is limited.
Intangibles: This team has no history of winning in this conference (save for the Sam Cassell years). This year will be no different. The team just did not improve enough in the offseason. Without Pickett, I can’t see them finishing .500 in this conference.
6. NC State (Prediction 9-7)
Frontcourt: The Wolfpack will really miss Marcus Melvin. He was the team’s most reliable three point threat and he could draw away the opposing team’s best interior defender away from the post, so Julius Hodge could go to the rack. They will not be able to replace Melvin’s shooting. Hodge can’t hit the three and it could become their Achilles heal.
Backcourt: Scooter Sherrill ran this team last year and they sputtered when he was out. They will really miss him especially since the upper-division is loaded with point guards. Hodge is the best player returning to the conference, and I think he will keep the Pack competitive.
Intangibles: This team just has away of falling apart in a horrible way during close games. They are like the Terps from the mid 90’s. They have talent, but they just don’t know how to win the big games. I’m also not convinced that Sendek is a good coach.
Terence Morris Division- The upper division of the ACC is ridiculously tough. Any of these teams (except Duke) could win the National Championship. Other than Duke finishing fifth, I have ranked these teams in no particular order. Frankly, I’m just guessing.
5. Duke (Prediction 10-6)
Backcourt: J.J. Redick is the best shooter in the NCAA. He probably would have led the USA Basketball team to the gold medal if he had been on the team. He is an absolute force and I hate him. Daniel Ewing is a natural shooting guard who plays small forward because of Redick. Now, lets take a look at the point guard position. Going into last season, Coach KryBaby had Shaun Livingston penciled in to replace Chris Duhon. Since Livingston left for the NBA, Coach K is forced to turn to Sean Dockery to lead the team. The two newcomers are both under 6’6”, (DaMarcus Nelson and David McClure) but neither can play the point. If you look at the rest of this conference, Duke will have some serious deficiencies at PG. I don’t think you can win in this conference without that. That being said, they are the Blue Devils and unfortunately, you can’t rule out Coach KryBaby.
Frontcourt: Shelden Williams can block some shots, but I think he has limited offensive skills. Shavlik Randolph isn’t scaring anyone. The Blue Devils will really miss Luol Deng.
Intangibles: If this team were any other team in the conference, people would not be picking them to finish in the upper half of the division. They have no bench at all, unless these freshman turn out to be good, but you can’t bet against KryBaby. He will have them ready. The only difference is that this year, they won’t have the best talent on the floor in nearly half their conference games.
4. North Carolina (Prediction 11-5)
Frontcourt: May is a question mark until he can prove that he can remain healthy for an entire season. If he can remain healthy, then watch out. He is a load down low and it will be a challenge for teams to keep him off the boards. Jawad Williams and Jackie Manuel are both overrated. Manuel in particular may be the worst starter in the ACC. What does he bring to the table other than an occasional steal? The big addition is Marvin Williams, the 6-9 forward was predicted to be a first rounder in the NBA draft, but he went to Chapel Hill instead. On a team as crowded as this, I wonder if he will regret that decision.
Backcourt: In a guard heavy conference, the Tarheels have two of the best, but I’m not convinced that these guys have the heart to take it to the next level. I think Felton often got outplayed in conference games last year, and McCants makes Vince Carter look tough. Bump this guy once when he is driving to the basket and he settles for threes the rest of the way.
Intangibles: OK, here’s my thing with Roy Williams. Name me one occasion in all of his years at Kansas when he did not have the most talent or second most talent in the Big 12? Don’t get me wrong; the Tarheels have tons of talent. It’s just that there are five other schools in the ACC with as much talent as Carolina. This means that the Tarheels will have to rely on the coaching of Roy Williams. I can’t recall Coach Roy ever out-coaching his opponent. I think last year confirmed that without talent head and shoulders above the competition, he is an average coach. If Williams can’t provide necessary leadership, than they are in deep trouble because it certainly won’t come from any of the players. Let’s talk about team leaders. Carolina must rely on the leadership of….Rashad McCants? The guy has tons of talent, but I just don’t see him setting an example for the rest of the team. I wouldn’t switch him for Gilchrist, that’s for sure.
3. Maryland (Prediction 11-5) Gary did a great job with the schedule this year. Just when the ACC becomes the toughest it’s been in 10 years, Gary has his easiest non-conference schedule in a decade. Could be luck, but when in doubt, I’m siding with the old Coach. If you want my full Terrapin preview, Check out my previous two postings below.
2. Georgia Tech (Prediction 12-4)
Backcourt: Jarret Jack and BJ Elder are as good as any tandem in the country. Will Bynum is a solid backup PG.
Frontcourt: Tech lost two starters off of last year’s squad to graduation: Marvin Lewis and Clarence Moore. Those forwards will be replaced by the electrifying Isma’il Muhammad and most likely freshman Ra’Sean Dickey. Luke Schenscher has the potential to be dominant at times. I know that sounds crazy but the guy is tough to match up against.
Intangibles: Tech made it to the Final Four last year and with most of the nucleus returning, it’s hard to pick against them this year. Schenscher, Elder, and Jack are special players. I don’t really have much else to say about the Yellowjackets, they are just good and Paul Hewitt can coach.
1. Wake Forest (Prediction 12-4)
Backcourt: The Demon Deacons didn’t lose anyone last year. Chris Paul might be the best point guard in the country. Justin Gray is a sharpshooter. The guards are a little undersized but a seasoned group. These two will not get outplayed all season.
Frontcourt: Jamal Levy can block shots and score in the paint, but he is thin. Guys like Sean May at UNC should be able to push him around a little. Vytas Danelius might be Darius Songalia, except that he whines like a little bitch. I think they are the same person otherwise. Seriously.
Intangibles: Wake Forest did not lose one significant player from last year’s team. This is the best Wake Forest team since Tim Duncan and Randolph Childress won the ACC Tournament. They could make it to the Final Four this year, but then again, so could four other teams in this conference. If Maryland can’t win it all this year, I’d rather it be the Deacs or Tech than Duke or Carolina.
Final Analysis
It is not out of the question that the ACC will send four teams to the Final Four. I know that sounds ridiculous, but it is plausible. Kentucky, Kansas, Connecticut, and Michigan State will challenge for National Championship as well. Besides that the ACC will rule the roost.
